Pandemic Influenza

Current WHO Status: Pandemic Alert Period
Phase 3

Human infection(s) with a new subtype but no human-to-human spread, or at most rare instances of spread to a close contact.

Current U.S. Government Response Stage: Pandemic Alert Period
Pandemic Stage 1

Suspected human outbreaks overseas

Pandemic Overview:

What Is a Pandemic?

A pandemic is a global disease outbreak. A flu pandemic occurs when a new influenza virus emerges for which people have little or no immunity, and for which there is no vaccine. The disease spreads easily person-to-person, causes serious illness, and can sweep across the country and around the world in a very short time.

Why Is There Concern About Avian Flu (“Bird Flu”)?

It is difficult to predict when the next influenza pandemic will occur or how severe it will be. Wherever and whenever a pandemic starts, everyone around the world is at risk. Countries might, through measures such as border closures and travel restrictions, may delay arrival of the virus, but cannot stop it.

Health professionals are concerned that the continued spread of a highly pathogenic avian H5N1 virus across Asia, Europe and Africa and other countries represents a significant threat to human health. The H5N1 virus has raised concerns about a potential human pandemic because:

•    It is especially virulent

•    It is being spread by migratory birds

•    It can be transmitted from birds to mammals and in some limited circumstances to humans

•    It currently has a extremely high mortality rate of those infected (~60% CFR)

•    Like other influenza viruses, it continues to evolve, and appears to becoming better at infecting   humans over time.

Since the start of 2006, the H5N1 virus has spread to over 30 new countries in Asia, Europe and Africa in migratory birds and poultry. It is expected that the virus will also spread to North America through the migratory bird population within the next several months to year.

Since 2003, a growing number of human H5N1 cases have been reported in Asia, Europe and Africa including human outbreaks in Azerbaijan, Cambodia, China, Djibouti, Egypt, Indonesia, Iraq, Jordan, Nigeria, Thailand, Turkey, and Vietnam. More than half of the people infected with the H5N1 virus have died. Most of these cases are believed to have been caused by exposure to infected poultry. The mortality rate of humans infected to-date is 60%. As a comparison, during the severe Spanish Flu of 1918/1919, the mortality rate in developed countries (e.g. North America, Europe) was approximately 2.1%.

To date, there has been no sustained human-to-human transmission of the disease, but the concern is that H5N1 will continue to evolve into a virus capable of human-to-human transmission. The virus mutates very frequently, and continues to become more dangerous over time. There have been a variety of reports of likely human-to-human transmission, including a large family cluster in Indonesia.

The avian (bird) population is the source of all flu viruses, including the seasonal flu that we experience every year. When a new strain (novel) emerges that humans have not been infected with previously, then the potential for a pandemic develops.

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